The international bicycle industry is holding its breath while the Trump administration see-saws on tariff threats that could wreak havoc on supply chains, from huge factories to local bike shops.
The historically unprecedented tariffs announced – and then deferred – for bikes, components and raw materials imported into the US from major producers such as China, Taiwan and Vietnam, could hit bike sales hard.
Electric bikes and cargo bikes would be especially hard hit.
Products are now frozen in shipping containers across the world, with factories idled and the industry wildly speculating on what happens next as the clock ticks on the 90-day tariff pause.
The pause was forced on Trump when US financial markets rebelled, sending the stock and bond markets reeling, and threatening the stability of the economy.
Most bicycles and parts sold by major US brands are manufactured offshore in Asian factories that have efficiencies and cost structures that cannot be replicated elsewhere.
US consumers face steep price rises on everything from complete bikes to chains and spokes. Raw materials such as steel and aluminium are also subject to rising tariffs, so US component manufacturers will also be stung.
Amid all this confusion and uncertainty, what the knock-on effect on Australian consumers will be is at this point guesswork.
Possibly, with a surplus of previously US-bound bikes, frames, group-sets and related products accumulating at factories while Trump prevaricates, some of these products could be switched to the Australian market.
But orders for future bike models for Australia are usually made a year or more in advance and this is a pipeline that is hard to stretch or squeeze.
On the other hand, due to the rapid growth in the market, quality electric bikes and electric cargo bikes have been constrained in supply, enabling brands to hold prices steady and avoid discounting.
Brands, in order keep factories operating efficiently, may direct some of these products away from the US to other markets to avoid 40% plus tariffs, thus increasing supply in Australia and putting downward pressure on prices.
But right now, no-one really knows what Trump – a bike race promoter in a previous life – will try next.
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